Thursday, March 09, 2006

The Future of the Middle of the NBA: The Western Conference


And now for the Western Conference…

Hornets— How many rookies does it take to turn a franchise around? In this case, it took one. The Hornets went from being one of the worst teams in the league to being an up and comer. But the real question the franchise faces is, to quote Guns N’ Roses, “where do we go now?” The problem with such rapid success is that the team doesn’t have many ways to grow. Because a mid first round draft pick doesn’t generally yield star, a piece the Hornets will need to get over the top, the draft will simply serve to provide them with more complementary pieces to surround a core of Chris Paul and David West. While adding complementary pieces isn’t a bad thing, the Hornet’s core could really use just a bit more punch. The problem doesn’t lie in Paul though; David West is simply not a dynamic enough player. He’s a very good second or third scoring option, but the Hornets are in need of a go-to guy. Paul is a great passer, scorer and a crunch-time player, but he isn’t, nor should he strive to be, a volume scorer. So that, a volume scorer, is the missing piece in the Hornets nest. But with a middle draft pick and not much cap space, how does a team acquire a scorer of that nature? One possible solution, albeit a risky one, is to make a trade. Since “Flip” Murray is emerging as a very good second option for the Cavaliers, they might think about trading Larry Hughes. If the Hornets were to offer J. R. Smith and Desmond Mason for Hughes, the Cavs might bite. Even though Smith is severely talented, he’s not really show much of that this year. After a solid rookie season, he hasn’t really improved. Playing behind Lebron James and Murray might be just what he needs to develop. Desmond Mason also provides the Cavs with a dynamic sixth man, something they currently lack. Although Hughes is older, and a bit of an injury risk, he has a history of excelling when paired with a great point guard: just look at his numbers with Gilbert Arenas. Hughes would also add the scoring punch that the Hornets are currently lacking and might be enough, along with the natural development of West and Paul, to make this team one of the better teams in the West. Its interesting to note that the Hornets will also have a decent amount of cap space freeing up over the next two years. If they manage it wisely, they could be a strong player in future free agent markets.


Lakers— The Lakers have one of the best players in the game, in Kobe Bryant, and one of the worst teams in the game, in everyone else. In Miami, Lamar Odom proved that he can be a marvelous player, with his rebounding and passing ability, but he needs a strong supporting cast for his abilities to be really useful. Smush Parker, Chris Mihm and Kwame Brown are proving to be somewhat adequate puzzle pieces, but they clearly leave a lot to be desired. The rest of the team is terrible. Actually, if you take Kobe out of the equation, the entire team is a pretty terrible offensive unit. There will be frequent nights when not a single one of them manages to score in double figures; of course on a lot of those nights Bryant will score 40 to 50 points, thereby making up for his teammates shortcomings. But that really doesn’t leave you a lot say, if Kobe gets injured or has an off night and only scores 25. Fortunately the Lakers have a really big future, in Andrew Bynum, but he’s still years away from doing anything more than tumbling with Shaq for 15-20 minutes a game. By the time he develops, Bryant and Odom might be too old to keep the team in contention. There might be a solution though. When the Timberwolves miss the playoffs again this year, the Lakers should do everything they can to acquire the Wolves’ disgruntled star. A package of Bynum, Brown, Odom and some future draft picks might actually be enough to complete a trade for Kevin Garnett. That plus a few well placed phone calls by Phil Jackson, Kobe Bryant and Jerry Buss to help convince Garnett that pairing two of the games best players almost always results in a championship, or three.

Kings—The Kings are a lot like the West’s version of the Knicks. Granted, Rick Adelman isn’t quite able to break the spirits of his players the way Larry Brown is, and the players themselves make up a more balanced roster. Think of the Kings as a ‘rich man’s’ Knicks. Obviously not in terms of payroll, but in terms of wins. The problem with this roster though may simply be that Rick Adelman’s voice has been sounding in Sacramento for so long that it has become white noise. The players simply aren’t listening to their coach anymore. So what if the Maloof brothers offered James Dolan, Adelman, a coach who uses the run-and-gun attack that might actually be able to make the Knicks roster work; for Brown, a hard nosed defensive minded coach who might be able to get the best out of the underachieving Sacramento squad. A coach-for-coach trade could be the answer that these two teams are looking for, improbable as it may be. Of course you can't really trade coaches, but it is a nice thought. So is winning.

Jazz—Something clearly isn’t working in Utah. They bring in the players they want, deal the players they want, have the coach they want and still seem to recover from the Stockton/Malone era. Although it’s only a few years passed, this current Jazz roster should be so much more than they are. Owner Larry Miller agrees and has been publicly berating his players through the media. The Jazz have the clear need of a shooting guard, and would probably like to put an end to the Carlos Boozer era as soon as they can. It looks like the summer will provide the team with an opportunity to do both. With the Lakers leading the charge for Boozer and the draft looking to yield Jeff Hornacek clone, JJ Redick, the best thing for the Jazz to do seems to be taking the “wait and see” approach to things. If they are able to grab Redick, and either move Boozer, or get him into playing shape, the Jazz could be a drastically different team next season. If a backcourt of Redick and Derron Williams is able to play to its potential the Jazz will have a bright future. Combine them with Mehmet Okur and Andre Kirilenko, the second coming of Dolph Lundgren, and the future of the Jazz looks brilliant.

Thursday, March 02, 2006

The Future of the Middle of the NBA: The Eastern Conference

The second half of the season is officially underway and now different teams will have to focus on the different aspects of basketball. Elite teams like the Spurs, Mavericks, Pistons and Heat will focus on dominating every game they play from here on out to secure home-court advantage throughout the playoffs. The upper-level teams, like the Cavaliers, Wizards, Clippers and Grizzlies, all of whom seem rather unlikely in this spot, will be competing for playoff positioning. Some teams, like the Magic, Hawks and Raptors will simply be trying to look to the future and develop the young talent they have. It is the teams that fall between these last two types that will have the greatest challenges ahead of them. They must prepare for a playoff run, and prepare to make potentially drastic changes in the off-season to push themselves to the next level, and ultimately, to become contenders. It is with that in mind, that Page4Hoop examines those teams in a two part series entitled ‘The Future of the Middle of the NBA.’

First, the Eastern Conference…

Sixers— Despite having one of the weakest benches in all of basketball, the Sixers could be a dangerous playoff team. If only the first round of the playoffs was based on a five game series, the Sixers could upset nearly any team in the league. Even an older, wiser (though some might debate this) Allen Iverson is generally good for at least one win in a playoff series. The same could be said for Chris Webber on a good day. Even in a best-of-seven series, this Sixers squad could still be dangerous. That being said, this is not a roster built for tomorrow. At best, the current team wouldn’t make it past the second round, and with their stars aging, the future will not really see much of an improvement. Philly needs to take a look at their roster and figure out what moves they can make to build a better team around Iverson and Webber. This may involve mortgaging the future of the franchise, but if it brought a championship to the city of brotherly love, the fans would certainly be patient in a rebuilding effort. Though this might not be the case. The Sixers core, of Iverson, Webber, Andre Iguodala and Samuel Dalembert, is strong to enough to be in contention immediately with an adequate supporting cast.
The goal of the Sixers is, as it should be, to combine their mid-level exception and draft picks to create that team. By signing a savvy vet, like Jim Jackson, that would complete one piece of the puzzle. If the season ended today, they would be picking 17th and 45th; mid round draft picks. The draft will really be the difference maker for the Sixers this season. They need a big man, and another guard. If the injured Willie Green is able to return, he could provide them with that other guard, but he might not. Drafting big in the first round, and small in the second would make the most sense for the team. Realistically the Sixers will have a chance to select Hilton Armstrong or Josh Boone with their first round pick. Either of those players would provide a low post presence able to pick up the slack when Webber is injured or too worn down to play during the games. In the second round, the Sixers would be best targeting a guy like Louisville’s Taquan Dean. Dean is an undersized shooting-guard in the mold of Iverson. Though he’s not nearly as talented, his shooting range is better, and he is much bigger and stronger. Dean is also a very good defender and a four-year veteran. He was instrumental in Louisville’s run to the Final Four a year ago. By fortifying their bench with players like this, guys ready to come in and play, the Sixers might have the firepower to make a surprise push in the playoffs next season.

Bucks—Odd as it sounds, the Bucks will need to take a wait-and-see approach to the season. They actually have a very good mix of veterans and youth. With two promising players in Andrew Bogut and TJ Ford, the Bucks will be a good team for years to come. The biggest issue that they face is whether or not to make Bogut a power-forward. Although he is more than large enough, he may not be quick enough to play alongside Jamal Magloire in the frontcourt. Then again, he very well may be quick enough. Because Bogut is still learning the game, it is difficult to tell whether the two big-men will be able to coexist. In the end, the Bucks may be forced to move Magloire, but doing it a second before the trading deadline next year, would be a mistake. Until then, the Bucks will have to let the two play through their struggles together. If they can figure it out, the Bucks will have one of the biggest, strongest frontcourts in the game to pair with a deadeye gunner in Michael Redd. Since experience is the biggest thing that the Bucks need to become a contender, all they should do is wait, and let the cards fall how they will.

Bulls— The Bulls are at a crossroads. The current roster is clearly not good enough for contention, but some of the core pieces may develop into amazing players. As a team that is fully acquainted with long-term success, the franchise knows a thing or two about being patient and waiting for the perfect shot to open, so to speak. In the past the Bulls have made advantageous moves netting them assets like Scottie Pippen, Dennis Rodman and most recently a couple of draft picks from the Knicks. These picks may prove to be the biggest trading chip the team has. With two potential number one picks, the Bulls will certainly have their pick of, if not the best, the nearly best players in the drafts over the next two years. Drafts that include names like Lamarcus Aldridge and Greg Oden. Adding a player like this to the Bulls roster instantly makes them a lot stronger, and would give them all they could possibly need for the future.
Although there is another side to this coin: the Bulls could turn those picks, and some of their other assets, into a superstar and be contenders instantly. With Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce potentially on the trading block, the Bulls could convert their assets into one of these players. Even the possibility of pairing Tyson Chandler with Zach Randolph or a healthy Carlos Boozer might be enough to really improve the team. Rather than rehashing these so frequently talked about trade scenarios, there is another that is very worth exploring. With new GM Brain Colangelo looking to make his mark in Toronto, the Bulls could acquire, at a fairly reasonable price, one of the franchise’s two young power forwards, in Charlie Villanueva and Chris Bosh. Though it is tough to see the Raptors letting Bosh walk, if he were to make it clear that he wasn’t into playing for the franchise, as Joe Johnson did in Phoenix, the Raptors would likely give him up for a fair trade. If the Bulls offered Ben Gordon and possibly a pick for Bosh, Colangelo would definitely have to give it some serious consideration. The Raptors originally looked at Chris Duhon and in fact signed him to an offer sheet. Because of this he can’t be traded to the team within a calendar year of the signing, but is fair game after that. He would look good in the Raptors backcourt and Villanueva would look good on the Bulls if the Bulls were willing to include one of their picks in the deal. This would give Colangelo the option to select players that fit his mold in the draft, rather than working so much with the mess left by the previous administration. It would also give the Bulls a frontcourt mate to pair with Chandler and allow them to retain one or possibly both of their draft picks to select the elusive big guard.

Celtics—This situation is a bit stickier than the rest of them. They have two different cores, a young one and one in its prime. This situation rarely turns out positively. Philadelphia is another perfect example of this situation; though their cores are closer in age. Danny Ainge needs to make an executive decision as to whether the Celtics want to win now, or in four years. At this point, both scenarios are realistic, but he really won’t be able to have his cake and eat it too. Although neither is really the better option and Ainge seems to be too indecisive to pick one. With that in mind, Page4Hoop is formally starting a “Bill Simmons For Celtics GM” campaign. Let us know if you think Simmons belongs in the front office. We really think he could provide the Celtics with the direction they so desperately need. For his first move, Simmons could build a team around one of his favorite players, Paul Pierce. With the Indiana Pacers in a state of flux, a well-timed offer of Raef LaFrentz, Al Jefferson, Tony Allen and Brain Scalabrine plus a pick or two for Jermaine O'Neal and Fred Jones might actually happen. A mutually beneficial trade, it would give the Pacers a future, in Jefferson and Allen, and the Celtics a 'now,' by paring O'Neal with Pierce. If anyone could make this happen, the Sports guy could. "Bill Simmons for Celtics GM."