Getting Back in the Game

Recently Washington Wizards rookie Andray Blatche was shot in an attempted car jacking and is scheduled to miss at least the upcoming training camp. Blatche, as it turned out, was lucky not to have to miss more or be more seriously injured. This though, brings to the forefront a rather interesting dilemma that NBA teams face when dealing with players; that is, non-basketball related injuries. From Paul Pierce’s stabbing to Jay Williams motorcycle accident to Vin Baker’s alcoholism, teams and often time players themselves, are nearly powerless when it comes to what happens off the court. This season will feature several players returning to action for the first time, in TJ Ford and Jay Williams, and, in DerMarr Johnson, a player that has a chance to finally reach his potential, post accident.


The stories of TJ Ford and Jay Williams are so extremely similar yet divergent enough at some points that their returns will be scripted completely differently. Whereas Ford injured his spinal cord during a Bucks game, Jay Williams crashed a motorcycle that he was not supposed to be driving. While the Bucks embraced Ford and toted him the point-guard of the future, the Bulls cut their ties with Williams and drafted Kirk Hinrich. Ford seems to have rehabbed his injury in a season and looks to be the starting point-guard on a team poised to be an Eastern Conference sleeper this season. Williams, on the other hand, has spent two arduous years training to return to the NBA. He has no team to return to and it’s looking as though he won’t until just before training camp begins. Both players were figured to be mainstays on future all-star teams before their injuries and now they both figure to be major question marks. While its difficult to see either of these players falling out of the league, because they’re both so young and so talented, but its also difficult to imagine either of them living up to their full potential.

DerMarr Johnson wouldn’t be a bad model for these point-guards to look to for inspiration. Johnson, once a player thought to be the next Scottie Pippen, at best and at least, the next Bobby Jones. Well, maybe those are bit of a stretch, but Johnson had a lot of potential. The Hawks selected him with the 6th overall pick in the 2000 draft and had high hopes for him. After two promising seasons, Johnson was in a car accident that sidelined him for a year and a half with injuries to his vertebra. Now he’s back and looks to be the Nuggets full time shooting guard. Johnson had a decent year last year. If he can step up and really play some solid minutes at the two, the Nuggets search for a guard may be over. Last season he put up decent averages, and his per-40-minute play was exactly what the Nuggets would need to be a serious contender, with 16.3ppg, 2.4apg and 4.9rpg. Consistency has always been an issue with Johnson so he may be nothing more than a role player now, but if he can figure out how to play at a high level all the time, the Nuggets will have a real gem on their hands.


Andray Blatche shouldn’t feel too disheartened about missing time and getting shot, in terms of his career goals. Paul Pierce is better now than he was before he was a stabbing victim, Jay Williams and TJ Ford are poised to make comebacks to the NBA and DerMarr Johnson is poised to be a serious player. If Blatche ever has a doubt about his future all he need do is look to the past and see all the other guys who’ve been able to resurrect their careers from serious non-basketball-related injuries.

Can you feel the Magic?

As expansion franchises go, the Orlando Magic is a pretty lucky team. Since their inception in 1990, they’ve managed to find themselves playing in the NBA finals, the conference finals and are perennially a playoff team. Names such as Tracy McGrady, Shaquille O’Neal and Penny Hardaway have all spent some of their prime years in Orlando. Even if it hasn’t brought them a championship, the Magic have always been a team headed in that direction. This season, however, something is different. This season the Magic seem to have lost their direction. The franchise that has been, on several occasions, the brightest face for the future of the NBA, seems to be lost somewhere between the lottery and a first round exit in the playoffs.

Since 2001, a string of injuries and bad luck seems to have kept the Magic from reaching their potential, as a team that boasted two of the leagues future greats, in Grant Hill and T-Mac. After McGrady forced a trade to the Rockets for Steve Francis and spare parts, the Magic are left in a rather precarious position. Francis is a player capable of having a team built around him, and when you trade the player that you’ve built your team around, you want another piece to build around. He’s in the prime of his career and isn’t the type of player that gets better with age. While some point guards can continue to play past their prime, ones who base their game around scoring, like Gary Payton, tend to be best suited for the bench in the twilight of their career. Franchise is still nowhere near that point, but its coming, in the not too distant future. Same goes for Grant Hill, whose twilight could happen any day if he steps on his ankle wrong. Then there’s Dwight Howard, the newest #1 draft pick to grace the team with his presence. Howard will be a superstar in the not too distant future. Think of him as the next Amare Stoudamire, only with better rebounding and defense.

So where does that leave the Magic? They have essentially three different building blocks to put this team together. All three pieces are going to be peaking, or have peaked, at different times. With the exception of Howard, it’s going to be tough to trade any of those pieces. One school of thought says that you should just let the team play and miss the playoffs, thereby accumulating draft picks. When the major contracts come off the books then you sign whoever’s available. While teams like Atlanta and New Orleans have failed using this strategy, Orlando, because of its superstar to be, might just be able to pull this off. But then you’ve got to deal with an unhappy Francis and Hill. Guys like that don’t want to spend their time waiting for the team to grow. Francis is still young enough that there could be some overlap between his prime and Howard’s. The long and short is, the Magic should probably take a proactive approach to improving this team. Their history shows they will, but how does a team like this do it?

The best option is to trade for players who will be in their primes at the same time. The Boston Celtics provide the Magic with a partner that can mutually benefit from a trade of this type. A trade of Steve Francis and parts for Ricky Davis, Delonte West and Raef Lafrentz could make an immediate impact for both teams. For Boston, it gives them a legit starting point guard and another star to pair with Paul Pierce, who’s also ready to win right now. The Magic get a younger replacement for Francis’ scoring, in Davis, as well as a young point guard prospect, in West. Lafrentz isn’t a bad player and playing bench minutes, backing up Howard and Kelvin Cato, should keep him in better shape to avoid injuries. His contract expires the same year as Francis’ so they’re not going to betting too much relief there, except that Lafrentz earns several million dollars a year less than Francis does.

Another option is to trade for another star to pair with Hill and Francis. This team, with another star, would instantly be back in contention. Trading Dwight Howard, though unorthodox, could give the Magic that extra firepower they need to be a contender today. A trade of Howard, Tony Battie and Hedo Turkoglu to the Jazz for Mehmet Okur and Carlos Boozer would accomplish just that. With a frontcourt of Boozer and Okur, the Magic would have both the offensive and defensive power to compete with teams in the East. Although it’s tough to imagine this win today scenario panning out for the Magic, since it almost never works when teams try it, since teams need time to develop together. A team built around Howard that will begin to hit their stride in two to three years then, seems to be the best option.

The point of all this is that the Magic, as a franchise that seems to enjoy winning, need to step up and make some moves to get themselves outside the shadow of mediocrity. A team that spends the way this one does to win, even if its attempts to do so are foiled by injuries or free agents leaving, obviously wants to be more than mediocre. If they can make the right moves to put a team around either Howard or Francis, they could be right back in the hunt for a championship either today, or tomorrow.

Award Predictions

With the preseason coming to a close, its time to make some predictions about who the big impact players of the up and coming season will be. So, here are the Page4hoop preseason award predictions. We’ll also throw out our predictions for season’s biggest surprise and biggest disappointment.

→ Rookie of the Year: Andrew Bogut (Bucks)
This award is all about playing time and numbers. While somebody like Raymond Felton or Derron Williams may make a bigger impact in the wins column, Bogut will make a bigger statistical impact. This will be a similar situation to last year when the award went to Emeka Okafur over Ben Gordon, who was a large part of the Bulls success while Okafur put up great numbers. Bogut will do a little bit of both though, making him the clear choice. Look for him to be the starting center on a team that will win. He’ll get his minutes and may average close to a double-double, since there aren’t really any other solid big-men on that roster. It’s not that he’ll win it by default, it’s that Andrew Bogut is in the best situation for individual success.

→ Sixth Man of the Year: Donyell Marshall (Cavaliers)
Having spent a good portion of his career, including last season, as a sixth man, Marshall is the logical choice to fall into this role in Cleveland. That being said, he’ll still be their best shooter, with competition from Damon Jones, so he’ll get plenty of looks. Marshall can also rebound and pass a little bit too, so his ability to fill up the box score and knock down shots, should help him win this award. The shooting will also keep him in games during crunch time, which we know helps a Sixth man’s chances of capturing the award.

→ Most Improved Player of the Year: Kwame Brown (Lakers)
Brown has a few things working for him in this year that he’s never had before. The first is a superstar coach, in Phil Jackson. Jackson is able to bring the best out of even the bench his players sit on and Brown knows benches, so if Jackson can get something from them, surely he can get something from a 6’11’’ ultra-athletic power-forward. Secondly the playing time is there for him. Brian Cook is really his only competition at the 4 and that should leave Brown with plenty of playing time. He’s also in a situation where he could see some time backing up Chris Mihm at the 5. The Lakers have a pretty weak frontcourt and Brown is going to be the beneficiary of the situation. He won’t average a double-double, but his numbers will be a lot closer to those of two years ago, where he put up 10ppg and 7rpg, so a double-double isn’t that far away.

→ Defensive Player of the Year: Tim Duncan (Spurs)
The problem with this award is that there really aren’t that many defensive superstars in the league anymore. Ben Wallace has been winning the award mostly because he’s the only guy still making his living playing strictly defense. Well, him and Bruce Bowen, and its tough to give the award to a guy who averages 3rpg. It would defy logic to give Ben the award 4 times unless he can put up huge numbers next season. With that in mind, the award should seem to fall into the hands of Tim Duncan, a guy who wins a lot of championships by playing the best low post defense in the game. Tim is a perennial candidate and has yet to win the award, so look for this to be his year.

→ MVP: Ron Artest (Pacers)
David Stern may veto this award, and the press may not vote him in, but at the end of next season, if Artest doesn’t win this award (assuming he plays the whole season), there’s going to be some explaining to do. Artest plays defense like a player of the year, and will score with the best of them. Although he played only a little last season, he showed that when he did play, he was emerging as one of the games best players. He’ll come back and lead the Pacers to lots of wins so don’t be too shocked if he can pull this one.

Biggest Surprise: The Knicks win under Larry Brown
When was the last time Larry Brown was unsuccessful in getting a group of players to play a lot better than they did the season before, in his first year in a new place? You have to go all the way back to 1989, when he coached the Spurs. Brown’s had a few new jobs since then, and has succeeded at all of them, in his first year. The Knicks were nearly a playoff team last season, so look for them to make the leap into the top eight in the East this year. They’ll have some issues to work out, but that’s what training camp is for. The fact of the matter is that Larry Brown is too good a coach, and Stephon Marbury is too good a player, for the Knicks not to make the playoffs. If a player plays as well as Marbury does, and a team doesn’t make the playoffs, its because the coach isn’t coaching to his star’s strengths. Brown does this as well as anyone in the history of the league, so look for the Knicks to do some serious damage next season.

Biggest Disappointment: Cleveland may not make the playoffs.
Everybody loves Lebron. Everybody loves what the Cavs have done in the off-season. That is, everybody except starting point-guard, Damon Jones. In a recent interview with ESPN’s Rick Bucher, Jones described the Cavs as a team, “on the cusp of being good.” It doesn’t sound like he has as much confidence as many people do for this roster. The fact remains that for as many off-season moves as the Cavs have made, they’re still only six men deep. And while their first six men are better than they were last year, they are certainly not as deep. They have some serious center issues, since they only have one. Combine that with the fact that their center is one foul step away from a season of foot injuries, and the picture looks a little less bright for Cleveland. Their depth issues will certainly haunt them as well. The fact that there is going to be so much competition at the bottom of the East’s playoff standings won’t bode well for this squad, who has a history of crumbling when a team needs to be at its strongest. They still have Lebron James, so anything’s possible, but right now, the Cavs look only a little better on paper, than the Lakers. While there’s certainly a future for this franchise, counting them as a contender or even penciling them in for the playoffs may be something better left for when that time comes.

Got Curry?

Eddy Curry is one of the five best centers in the NBA. A great center is the most coveted player in the NBA. So the question then should be, why can’t Eddy Curry be paid like a top-five player at his position? There’s a simple answer and then a not so simple answer, though the not so simple one, is actually simpler. Confused? So is Eddy. Not so simply, he has a heart condition that may, in the future, prohibit his ability to play, so the NBA’s insurance carrier is not offering insurance on his contract. But, there are ways to deal with that, and it’s the job of John Paxon and Curry’s agent to figure that out. That’s why the not so simple, is simple. Here’s the simple that’s, well, not so much that way. In a word, numbers. It’s the numbers that seem so simple, yet make things so hard for ECity.

If you look at his numbers, Eddy is, at least offensively speaking, one of the best centers in the league. Putting up 16.1ppg, only Shaq, Yao and Big Z were better than Curry’s last year. Defensively, Eddy does the things that don’t show up on stat sheets. He boxes out, and plays his man hard. He’s a perfect pair with Tyson Chandler, because he is able to clear the lane so Chandler can grab boards and block shots. The Bulls were one of the leagues best defensive teams last season, and Curry’s efforts in the middle were a big reason for that.

But again, it comes back to the numbers. You can justify paying for Chandler or Samuel Dalembert because they have the defensive numbers, and it seems you can’t put a price on defensive numbers, but if you had to it would be upwards of $60 million a year. This is why Curry’s situation is so sticky. He just doesn’t have the defensive numbers to back up that kind of money. Curry wants to be one of the highest paid players in the game, and if he had grabbed just 3 more boards a game last season, he would be. Paying $60 million for a guy who puts up 16.1ppg and 8.4rpg is a lot easier than paying that for a guy who only put up 5.4rpg. Having a contract that isn’t insured makes it harder $60 million is a lot of money to loose.

What is a big man to do? Just sit back and take some incentive-laden deal that locks him up long term for a bargain? In a market where even Jerome James can get a $30 million deal, certainly a guy who’s not even hit his prime can get some big contract numbers. It looks like the best he’ll do is that incentive-laden deal, at least this off-season. For Curry to make the truly large bucks, he should just play out his one year qualifying offer, and really focus on offensive rebounding. If Curry is able to grab just those three more boards a game, then he’s going to be scoring at least 4 ppg more too. He’s too strong an offensive player not to dominate when he gets the ball off a missed shot. The Bulls don’t have the best shooters in the game, so having an asset like this could even make them a more dangerous team. Plus, the Bulls will be looking to spend a lot more money next year. Antonio Davis’ contract comes off the books, and if the Bulls make a successful run next season, they’ll be looking to keep the team they already have together, and just add role players. Curry could be the direct beneficiary of this if he plays well next season. He just has to get those numbers. If he can stay healthy for a season, his contract isn’t going to look so bad to an insurance provider either.

Really, to for ECity, that’s what it all comes down to, the numbers. If Curry takes his qualifying offer and then plays like he wants be paid like Shaq, then next season, he’ll see Shaq-esque money. This is the year for Baby-Shaq to step up and he will, if he can put up the numbers. If he does, he’ll be stepping up into a higher tax bracket as well.

One More Shot

The NBA’s off-season is slowly nearing a close as October approaches and teams begin their training camps. Though there is still around a month before that time comes, the free agent market seems to be fairly well picked over. All of the top players have signed with clubs and nearly all of the second tier players have done so as well. Many of the second tier players that have yet to do so seem to be poised to resign with their respective clubs. Eddy Curry, Gerald Wallace and Reggie Evans all fit that category. Of the remaining free agents, there are a few guys that could really come in and make a difference for some team next season. Though these guys are all drumming up a little bit of intrest from teams, they are all nearing that point of becoming fringe players. A lot of teams could stand to give these for guys a shot.

→ Jannero Pargo (Chicago Bulls)
Pargo is a relatively young point guard with many of the physical tools needed to be a legit NBA player. He is a very good shooter and was able to make a difference last season as a backup clutch shooter to Ben Gordon. Pargo is more a than capable ball handler and certainly possesses the speed necessary to run with any team in the league. The biggest problem with Pargo in the past has been is his defense, or lack of defense. Last season he showed that playing in the defensively sound system that the Bulls employed really kept his defensive shortcomings from hurting his game. Although he was buried fairly deep in the Bulls rotation, he was still able to make a solid impact, especially offensively. Teams like the Lakers, Hawks, and Cavaliers should all consider signing him. Although he’s not ready to be a starter, and likely never will be, he is a solid enough player to fill the backup point guard spot on any of those teams and would even be the best starting option for several of them. It looks like the Bulls have an interest in retaining Pargo, but it would certainly behoove these other teams to jump at the chance to grab such a valuable bench player.

→ Ronald “Flip” Murray (Sonics)
Need a starter? If you want a guy who can walk in and put up big numbers, can dunk the ball with authority and can even bring your team a few more wins in a season, look no further. Flip is capable of all that and more. Drafted by the Bucks in the second round, a team who’s track record for finding good shooting guards in the second round seems to be pretty respectable, just ask Michael Redd. Speaking of Redd, if you compare his career per-40-minute numbers to Murray’s you notice they are distinctly similar with a slight edge falling in Murray’s favor. Per-40-minutes he averages, for his career 18.7ppg, 3.7apg and 4.1rpg. So basically, if you want to pick up a guy who’s going to be playing like Michael Redd for a lot cheaper, look to Flip. He would be a perfect fit for the Hawks, Bobcats, Hornets, Raptors or just about any other team that is willing to give him minutes. Don’t think he can handle the pressure? He didn’t fare too poorly when he filled in for Ray Allen two seasons ago for the Sonics. If a team is looking for the next Michael Redd, they need look no further, Flip’s the man.

→Scott Williams (Cavs)
Although he’s certainly past his prime, at 37, Scott Williams still has enough gas left in the tank to help some contender. He’s made a career for himself being a serviceable backup center for contenders, and now he could fill in any team's void for a third center, as long as they’re able to help him get another ring. Early in his career he picked up a few playing for the Bulls, and no doubt would love to ride off into the sunset with another one on his finger. Williams is proficient at “Hack-a-Shaq,” so he could really be a good fit at any of the teams on the top. He’s spent some time in Phoenix so a return there would make a lot of sense. The Heat, Nets, Kings, Spurs, Timberwolves and Pacers could also really benefit from his locker room presence and ability to step up and play when he’s called upon. Though he may be ready to call it a career, one more ride with the right team could be just the thing for this NBA journeyman.

→Gary Payton (Celtics) and Latrell Sprewell (Timberwolves)
How many aging veterans does it take to piece together a championship puzzle? Well, if its one of these two guys, the answer could be just one. Although they’re both particularly mentally unstable players and may be unwilling to accept a lesser role for a championship team, they’re certainly worth a look, especially if a team can get them for the right price. Another option would be for the Hornets to sign them and let them have their way with the franchise for a while before they trade them to a contender in February, once the glamour of playing for the Hornets has worn off and they miss winning. If Spree and GP can accept a lesser role then both of these guys could be a massive advantage for a team in contention. Though they aren’t anywhere near it now, they were once both legit superstars and a team that gets one or two games of that in the playoffs will be at a major advantage no matter who they have to face.

Though these aren’t the only free agents, these are certainly the best of what’s remaining. So whether a team needs a back up point guard or a starting shooter, players like that are still available, the teams just need to take a little bit of a chance. But then sometimes, it’s that last shot that puts a team over the top. Maybe one of these guys will be next season’s champion’s last shot.