Award Predictions

With the preseason coming to a close, its time to make some predictions about who the big impact players of the up and coming season will be. So, here are the Page4hoop preseason award predictions. We’ll also throw out our predictions for season’s biggest surprise and biggest disappointment.

→ Rookie of the Year: Andrew Bogut (Bucks)
This award is all about playing time and numbers. While somebody like Raymond Felton or Derron Williams may make a bigger impact in the wins column, Bogut will make a bigger statistical impact. This will be a similar situation to last year when the award went to Emeka Okafur over Ben Gordon, who was a large part of the Bulls success while Okafur put up great numbers. Bogut will do a little bit of both though, making him the clear choice. Look for him to be the starting center on a team that will win. He’ll get his minutes and may average close to a double-double, since there aren’t really any other solid big-men on that roster. It’s not that he’ll win it by default, it’s that Andrew Bogut is in the best situation for individual success.

→ Sixth Man of the Year: Donyell Marshall (Cavaliers)
Having spent a good portion of his career, including last season, as a sixth man, Marshall is the logical choice to fall into this role in Cleveland. That being said, he’ll still be their best shooter, with competition from Damon Jones, so he’ll get plenty of looks. Marshall can also rebound and pass a little bit too, so his ability to fill up the box score and knock down shots, should help him win this award. The shooting will also keep him in games during crunch time, which we know helps a Sixth man’s chances of capturing the award.

→ Most Improved Player of the Year: Kwame Brown (Lakers)
Brown has a few things working for him in this year that he’s never had before. The first is a superstar coach, in Phil Jackson. Jackson is able to bring the best out of even the bench his players sit on and Brown knows benches, so if Jackson can get something from them, surely he can get something from a 6’11’’ ultra-athletic power-forward. Secondly the playing time is there for him. Brian Cook is really his only competition at the 4 and that should leave Brown with plenty of playing time. He’s also in a situation where he could see some time backing up Chris Mihm at the 5. The Lakers have a pretty weak frontcourt and Brown is going to be the beneficiary of the situation. He won’t average a double-double, but his numbers will be a lot closer to those of two years ago, where he put up 10ppg and 7rpg, so a double-double isn’t that far away.

→ Defensive Player of the Year: Tim Duncan (Spurs)
The problem with this award is that there really aren’t that many defensive superstars in the league anymore. Ben Wallace has been winning the award mostly because he’s the only guy still making his living playing strictly defense. Well, him and Bruce Bowen, and its tough to give the award to a guy who averages 3rpg. It would defy logic to give Ben the award 4 times unless he can put up huge numbers next season. With that in mind, the award should seem to fall into the hands of Tim Duncan, a guy who wins a lot of championships by playing the best low post defense in the game. Tim is a perennial candidate and has yet to win the award, so look for this to be his year.

→ MVP: Ron Artest (Pacers)
David Stern may veto this award, and the press may not vote him in, but at the end of next season, if Artest doesn’t win this award (assuming he plays the whole season), there’s going to be some explaining to do. Artest plays defense like a player of the year, and will score with the best of them. Although he played only a little last season, he showed that when he did play, he was emerging as one of the games best players. He’ll come back and lead the Pacers to lots of wins so don’t be too shocked if he can pull this one.

Biggest Surprise: The Knicks win under Larry Brown
When was the last time Larry Brown was unsuccessful in getting a group of players to play a lot better than they did the season before, in his first year in a new place? You have to go all the way back to 1989, when he coached the Spurs. Brown’s had a few new jobs since then, and has succeeded at all of them, in his first year. The Knicks were nearly a playoff team last season, so look for them to make the leap into the top eight in the East this year. They’ll have some issues to work out, but that’s what training camp is for. The fact of the matter is that Larry Brown is too good a coach, and Stephon Marbury is too good a player, for the Knicks not to make the playoffs. If a player plays as well as Marbury does, and a team doesn’t make the playoffs, its because the coach isn’t coaching to his star’s strengths. Brown does this as well as anyone in the history of the league, so look for the Knicks to do some serious damage next season.

Biggest Disappointment: Cleveland may not make the playoffs.
Everybody loves Lebron. Everybody loves what the Cavs have done in the off-season. That is, everybody except starting point-guard, Damon Jones. In a recent interview with ESPN’s Rick Bucher, Jones described the Cavs as a team, “on the cusp of being good.” It doesn’t sound like he has as much confidence as many people do for this roster. The fact remains that for as many off-season moves as the Cavs have made, they’re still only six men deep. And while their first six men are better than they were last year, they are certainly not as deep. They have some serious center issues, since they only have one. Combine that with the fact that their center is one foul step away from a season of foot injuries, and the picture looks a little less bright for Cleveland. Their depth issues will certainly haunt them as well. The fact that there is going to be so much competition at the bottom of the East’s playoff standings won’t bode well for this squad, who has a history of crumbling when a team needs to be at its strongest. They still have Lebron James, so anything’s possible, but right now, the Cavs look only a little better on paper, than the Lakers. While there’s certainly a future for this franchise, counting them as a contender or even penciling them in for the playoffs may be something better left for when that time comes.